On September 27th, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will vote to determine its next party president. Incumbent leader and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, facing extremely low approval ratings, announced last month that he will not seek re-election for a second three-year term. Therefore, as a result of the LDP’s majority in the National Diet, Japan will have a new Prime Minister when the Diet convenes for a vote on October 1st. The leadership election comes not only at a crucial time for the LDP itself, which has been hit by corruption scandals and is facing a general election that must be held within a year, but also amidst an increasingly difficult geopolitical and security situation in the Indo-Pacific. The LDP thus, needs to select a new and “fresh” face that can lead the party to yet another election victory, but also equally important is the need for a competent and strong leader to guide Japan through the challenges it faces. So, here’s a guide on who and what to look out for as Japan decides its next Prime Minister.
The Candidates
The LDP election is shaping up to be its most ‘chaotic’ and unpredictable in decades. A record nine candidates are running, and the dissolution of most of the party’s traditional factions (a response to the recent slush fund scandal in which certain factions had failed to report and mishandled campaign funds) makes it a much more open free for all. Two early frontrunners however were former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, and the 43-year old Shinjiro Koizumi, son of Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006). Both candidates have led opinion polls and remain popular with the public, but also have their own disadvantages internally. Ishiba, who is making his fifth and final run for the party leadership, is viewed as an outsider and untrustworthy by LDP heavyweights – a view stemming all the way back to his temporary departure from the party in the 1990s. Koizumi is relatively ‘young and inexperienced’, having only served as Environment Minister for a year, a significant downside in a political environment that places heavy emphasis on experience and stability. Either candidate might be exactly what the LDP needs as it seeks a new face to ensure its victory at the next general election however.
Sanae Takaichi, the current Minister for Economic Security, has also surged in the polls since announcing her candidacy, raising the prospects of Japan seeing its first ever female Prime Minister. Trailing behind her is Digital Minister, Taro Kono, a reform-minded “maverick” who finished second to Kishida in the run-off during the 2021 campaign. Despite winning nearly 50% of the first round popular vote back then, Kono’s popularity has been waning, in part due to the party leadership giving him often thankless government positions. With the exception of Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yoko Kamikawa, who is focusing on her role more than the campaign, the remaining candidates are increasingly more of a longshot. Obviously, political reform and reinvention is a key focus of the election following the slush fund scandal, but what does the election of a new Prime Minister mean for Japan as it seeks to cement its role both globally and, perhaps more importantly, in the Indo-Pacific region?
Their (Security) Policies
When campaigning began on September 12th, candidates delivered brief policy speeches. There were common themes, including all candidates agreeing on pursuing constitutional reform. Amending the “pacifist” Article 9 of the constitution would significantly strengthen Japan’s security and also open the door for the acquisition of new military technology and enhanced capabilities for the already capable Japan Self-Defense Forces. At a time when Beijing is growing more and more aggressive in pursuing its hegemonic goals, this would be a crucial step forward to enhance both Japan’s national defense and ensure security cooperation in the region. Despite general agreement on the goals, the candidates do differ slightly on how to address these security and diplomatic issues.
Ishiba for example, has long been a proponent of establishing an Asian NATO to counter threats from China and North Korea, in addition to strengthening relations with Taiwan and being known for his focus and expertise on defense related matters. Kono, who has previously served as both Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs, also provides valuable experience should he become Prime Minister. Similarly, he favors the expansion of multilateral frameworks and focus on cooperation with ASEAN and Indo-Pacific states. Meanwhile, Takaichi, who played a strong role in the governments of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and secured his backing in the 2021 leadership election, can be expected to carry a foreign policy similar to Abe’s. This could entail expanding the Free and Open Indo-Pacific framework, first pioneered by Abe and built on during Kishida’s term, her own focus on addressing strategic economic security domestically is also likely to be at the forefront. All candidates will agree on continuing to strengthen the US-Japan Alliance, the cornerstone of Japan’s defense policy, an area in which Koizumi may be especially valuable. Koizumi’s father effectively utilized the US-Japan partnership to strengthen Japan’s role globally, and Koizumi himself has experience from his time in the United States, experience that can be geared towards creating a form of new “Koizumi Diplomacy”.
Final Note
It is difficult to predict who may come out on top in this race, but there is no shortage of experienced candidates who could play a pivotal role as the leader of the world’s third largest economy. Takaichi however is already stirring controversy by directly distributing policy documents, which the LDP had banned in order to ensure a ‘fair and transparent’ election in the midst of the slush-funds scandal. Despite this, she still remains in a strong position to make the run-off. While Ishiba is a front-runner with the public, he may struggle to gain crucial votes from the LDP’s Diet members. Koizumi, only slightly behind in public opinion, will likely have an easier time securing votes from lawmakers, especially thanks to backing from former Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga. A run-off between Koizumi and Takaichi appears to be a likely scenario, and if the LDP is serious about a ‘new’ face and addressing the scandals, Koizumi might just be the best option – especially if he can channel the same ‘maverick’ and reformist streak his father had. Regardless of who is elected, one can expect some form of continuity in Japanese foreign policy with at least no dramatic shakeups when Japan’s new Prime Minister takes office on October 1st.
