The 2024 U.S. elections have been concluded and a new president has been elected by the American people. Although a seemingly unexpected result by outside observers, Donald Trump has been elected to become the 47th President of the United States, winning both the necessary electoral votes and the popular vote.
The questions about what this will entail for the future are numerous and will only increase as time goes on. There will not only be uncertainty regarding American society, but also global uncertainty. This is because the United States has a major influence on the entire planet. Much of this uncertainty stems from the sense that Trump is not an ordinary politician, nor was he an ordinary president in his first term. He is unpredictable and spontaneous, often making decisions that confuse analysts and give the impression that he sometimes has no real plan, especially on foreign policy.
Discussing U.S. foreign policy is crucial due to its extraordinary impact on the globe. The decisions and paths that the United States chooses to embark upon will reverberate across the political and economic spheres and will help determine the future of global politics.
In Trump’s upcoming second term, there are some key areas in foreign affairs where he is expected to change course from the previous administration. First and foremost, a very notable area is the Ukraine conflict where he intends to force a peace deal in ways yet unclear. This approach is considered unorthodox by Western leaders, as it likely entails Ukraine compromising its territorial integrity since they would not be able to regain the territory that they have lost. This is seen as beneficial to Russia since that territory would effectively be under their control for an uncertain amount of time, perhaps forever. This is a drastic change to the current U.S. administration’s policy, in which a so called “peace by strength is preferred”, meaning a peace where Ukraine can settle through military strength and force Russia to leave its territory. However, such a policy might take time and money, something that Trump and his supporters are critical of. Trump’s urgency for a peace proposal signals his desire to be less involved in arrangements that cost the United States money, even if it is to the detriment of their allies.
This trend might continue when it comes to the NATO alliance, seeing how Trump has repeatedly made negative statements about the organization and signaled that he wants to ease American support for it, despite the U.S. being a central member. Even this move seems to be motivated by lowering costs that Trump sees as unnecessary, but also by pressuring other members to pay more. The question that then remains is whether such a course of action will weaken the capacity of NATO to the degree that it might actually embolden Russia, motivating it to be more aggressive on the continent.
Trump’s ambitions stretch far beyond the European continent. In recent months he has had contact with the prime minister of Israel, even inviting him to his Florida home where they discussed a ceasefire in Gaza. Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the conflict in Gaza to be over once he takes office, what this means however is unclear. It either means that Trump wants a ceasefire, or it means that Trump is giving Netanyahu his blessing to “go all out” in Gaza and occupy all of its territory. The reason that there is doubt on this issue has to do with Trump’s latest picks for his cabinet, some of which are notoriously pro-Israel and supportive of Israeli annexation of Palestinian territory.
It seems that time will tell how the situation in the Middle East will play out. Current indications based on statements made by Trump’s cabinet seem to point toward an escalation of violence if Israel is permitted to have free reign over the region, especially since Israeli officials themselves have talked of plans to annex the Palestinian West Bank. Such actions would almost certainly incite violence and conflict in an area separate from Gaza and would be an escalation that would also have regional implications. Such a move could risk increased pressure from neighboring Arab countries or even international organizations such as the United Nations.
On the other side of the world, Trump also has his sights set on China and its economy, with plans to impose enormous tariffs in order to curb Chinese imports to the United States. This would be an attempted step toward weakening the Chinese economy, whilst also strengthening American industry and productivity.However, analysts warn that such tariffs could disrupt international supply chains and harm American production in the long run.
The move to disrupt Chinese exports in order to improve the United States’ economic potential is an obvious attempt to counteract the globalist voices that call for economic cooperation in the world economy, focusing instead on making the United States number one at the expense of everyone else. This phenomenon is well in line with Trump’s strategy that is best summarized by his own slogan, “Make America Great Again!”.
When looking at the global political and economic plans of Donald Trump, his main focus appears to be cutting costs that he perceives as damaging to the American economy and embracing isolationism. It remains to be seen whether this will be a stabilizing factor in global politics, as one might first be inclined to think, or whether this will lead to unforeseen consequences. Potential risks include a trade war with China, increased Israeli expansionism and conflict in the Middle East, and growing divisions within Europe.
