Everything You Need to Know About Germany’s Snap Election

On 23 February, Germany voted for a new parliament (Bundestag) and, consequently, a new government and chancellor. The results were as clear as ever — Friedrich Merz from the Conservatives (CDU) will be the new chancellor. That being said, the road to this election was unconventional, with unexpected turns. This is the story of a government that fell apart and everything that followed.

A Quick Overview

The conservatives won the election with 28,5% of the vote — their second-lowest result ever. The Social Democrats also reached a historic low of 16,4% (compared to 25,7% in 2021). For the first time ever they’re only the third strongest force. The Green Party suffered only minor losses, reaching 11,6% (compared to 14,8% in 2021). The far-right AfD, however, came in second strongest with 20,8%, doubling their 2021 result and securing their best outcome ever. Lastly, to everyone’s surprise, the Left Party reached 8,8% — an  impressive feat considering they barely made it into parliament last time (with 4,9%) and were considered dead up until December of last year. The BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) narrowly missed entry into parliament with 4,97% — just around 13400 more votes would have made the difference. Similarly, the Liberals (FDP) lost all of their seats by only getting 4,3%, a historic low at the federal level following 11,5% in 2021 and 10,7% in 2017. The key reason for that could very well be everything that went down a few months earlier.

The Beginning of the End

The then-government consisting of the Social Democrats, the Liberals, and the Green Party and led by Olaf Scholz (Social Democrats) officially imploded on 6 November 2024 when the chancellor fired then-finance minister Christian Lindner (Liberals). While this turn of events shocked many, it did not come as a surprise. One of the main points of discussion, and the one that ultimately triggered the implosion, was a law that regulates how much debt the state is allowed to incur. This law has continuously received backlash ever since it was put in place in 2009 after the global financial crisis. In its essence, it regulates that the state’s expenditures don’t surpass its income by more than 0,35% of GDP. As a consequence, the state has, over the years, not invested in certain infrastructures, even where it was sorely needed. Today, trains are late, bridges are collapsing, and many places are ill-equipped to prevent or handle climate-related disasters like floods — to name but a few infrastructural problems. For these reasons, both the Social Democrats and the Green Party want to change this law. But the Liberals, especially former finance minister Lindner, argue that it’s better for the economy. So, after countless discussions, Scholz decided that his government had failed and paved the way for a new election. 

“Open Field Battle”

Overall, the Liberals were already considered to be at fault for the government’s failure. But this sentiment intensified when other news made headlines only a few weeks later. After denying accusations at first, the Liberals published what they call an “internal strategy paper”. This 8-page paper reveals their plans to orchestrate the government’s downfall and discusses different media strategies and the optimal timing. In their ideal version, the Liberals would have walked away better off, but their strategy paper did not account for the amount of backlash they would receive. After all, the general response to this paper was outrage, not least because of the military terminology (‘D-Day’ refers to the day on which a combat attack or operation is initiated, the term is most commonly associated with 6 June 1944, when the Allies landed in Normandy to liberate Western Europe). After all of this, the Liberals’ election results are not surprising.

Election PR – the Good, the Bad, and the Terrible

Next to the standard political talk shows, a few new formats joined the media landscape, some likely inspired by the U.S., such as lengthy TV debates between the chancellor candidates. Many parties also put a lot of effort into reaching younger audiences, such as appearing in YouTube shows and podcasts. Additionally, the parties have found their own ways to make themselves heard — some more successfully than others. For instance, Alice Weidel, the chancellor candidate from the far-right AfD, appeared on Bloomberg Television and in a conversation with Elon Musk on his platform X, in which she spread misinformation and glorified the Third Reich. The AfD also remains popular on TikTok but the Left Party has recently surpassed them in engagement.

Surprising Gains for the Left

After reaching only 3% in polls at the end of 2024 and thus facing the possibility of not making it into parliament, the Left Party was considered irrelevant. But in only two months, they’ve managed to almost triple this number, even reaching 26% among 18-24 year olds. Against all odds, they’ve managed to come back in full swing, reaching an all-time high of members — over 100000, almost half of which joined in 2025. A key reason for this comeback is their newfound success on social media. In terms of likes, the Left Party is now the most popular party on TikTok, with Heidi Rechinnek, one of their top candidates, as its most recognizable figure. They also gain support through their policies, including rent caps and higher taxes on the rich.  More importantly, the Left Party’s surge in support was largely driven by a speech Heidi Reichinnek gave in parliament weeks before the election, in which she criticised Friedrich Merz (now chancellor) for relying on the far-right AfD to pass a law tightening migration policies. Many people were thus outraged and turned to the left party for hope.

A Brief History of Friedrich Merz

The new chancellor was born in 1955 and is 69 years old today. Merz is on the more right-leaning side of his party and is often considered to be Merkel’s antagonist, as she has repeatedly criticised him over the years. He has also earned his fair share of critique from the public, not least for being misogynistic. In 1997, he voted against criminalizing marital rape, and in 2006, he opposed the Equal Treatment Law, which ensures gender equality in education and employment. More recently, he strongly resisted decriminalizing abortion up to 12 weeks, despite surveys showing that over 80% of Germans support the reform. Furthermore, only 24% of MPs from his party are women, significantly below the average of 35% across parties, and he does not have any intentions of making this distribution more equal. Aside from this, he has made all kinds of racist and xenophobic comments. For instance, in 2023, he called the sons of immigrants “little pashas” and, a few months later, claimed that immigrants would steal dentist appointments from German citizens. Naturally, these kinds of comments go along with his political plans, such as implementing heavy border controls and tightening immigration laws. It seems that the Conservatives’ entire election campaign has only focused on one topic — immigration — and disregarded everything else. Climate change, for example, does not seem like a concern at all. 

Building Bridges and Burning Promises

The so-called “firewall” refers to a clear and insurmountable boundary between democratic parties and extremist forces. For many years, parties have refused to work with the far-right, and in parts extremist, AfD. Some parties, including the conservatives, even have official statements that make this boundary clear. And yet, on 29 January 2025, Merz tore down this firewall. After claiming for years that the Conservatives would never do anything with the AfD, and explicitly doing so again on 10 January, he seems to have had a change of heart. To pass his “5-points-plan” to restrict immigration, he sought votes from the AfD — and got them. Ultimately, the law did not reach the necessary majority but came very close — 338 MPs voted for it, 349 against. This collaboration between the Conservatives and the far-right massively enraged people. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets and protested against the AfD and the Conservatives. 

The Future

Even though a coalition with the AfD is very unlikely, that doesn’t mean the Conservatives won’t count on them in the future. The AfD is as strong and influential as ever, and achieving their goals is becoming easier as the Conservatives pave the way. Hope lies in the vast amount of backlash against the Conservatives, especially Merz, and in a strong Left Party, which will continue to play a crucial part in the opposition. Currently, a coalition with the Social Democrats seems to be the most likely. While a two-party coalition is generally quite stable, negotiations will be challenging, and it might take some time until the new government comes into force. The Conservatives and Social Democrats disagree on several fundamental things, migration being the most prominent one. Thus, they have to figure out where to compromise unless they want to trigger the next implosion.